Trade Disruption and the EV Transition: Economic and Labour Market Impacts on Canadian Automotive Manufacturing

This report models the combined impact of U.S. tariffs and the electric-vehicle transition on Canada’s automotive manufacturing sector and its workforce from 2026 to 2040, across three scenarios spanning the range of plausible trade and electrification outcomes. It finds job and output losses in every scenario, with the scale shaped most by whether Canada retains preferential access to the U.S. market. The report examines where those losses concentrate and which workers are most exposed, framing the transition as a question about workers as much as the broader economy.

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Tariff Exposure and Trade Dependence in Canada’s Automtoive Manufacturing Sector

In early 2025, the U.S. imposed sweeping tariffs on Canadian automotive exports, disrupting one of the country’s most trade-dependent and integrated manufacturing sectors. This report examines Canada’s reliance on the U.S. market, analyzing trade exposure, tariff compliance, duties paid, and the implications for investment and the workforce. It quantifies how deeply Canadian vehicle and parts production depends on continued U.S. access, and the risks facing manufacturers and workers in an increasingly volatile North American trade environment.

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Canada’s Auto Industry Update Report 2019-2023

Between 2019 and 2023, Canada’s automotive manufacturing industry experienced significant disruptions driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chain issues, and rapid advancements in electric vehicle (EV) technology. These factors led to changes in production, employment, and trade, but also catalyzed transformative investments in EV production and battery manufacturing. This report examines key industry statistics, provides an analysis of trends, and highlights key investments.

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Canadian Automotive Skills in Transition – Preparing for EV Production

Canada’s automotive manufacturing industry is transitioning to electric vehicle (EV) and battery production, driving significant changes in workforce skills and training needs. This report analyzes evolving skill requirements, highlights transferable skills, and identifies knowledge gaps to prepare workers for the demands of zero-emissions manufacturing.

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Vehicle Electrification and Its Impact on the Automotive Service, Repair, and Aftermarket Industries

This report aims to explore the implications of EV adoption within the automotive service, repair and aftermarket industries. As the demands for components and services change, new technologies may potentially affect the activities of businesses by altering the products and processes which these businesses have operated on. The report explores the potential disruption to businesses engaged in automotive repair and maintenance, parts dealing and manufacturers in industries providing support to them.

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The Shift to EV Production in Canada’s Automotive Manufacturing Sector

Canada’s automotive manufacturing sector’s shift to electric vehicle (EV) production offers opportunities to expand supply chains and boost economic growth, while posing challenges such as managing the decline of internal combustion engine production and ensuring a just transition for affected workers. This report analyzes the economic and labour market impacts of this transition from 2025 to 2040 through three scenarios, projecting outcomes ranging from modest to significant growth in output and jobs for the automotive manufacturing sector, as well as the Canadian economy.

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ICEV to EV Workforce Transition Labour Market Forecast:

Canada Report: Canada’s transition to decarbonization is transforming the automotive manufacturing sector, shifting production from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to electric vehicles (EVs). This report examines labour market impacts on 68 occupations across 49 industries from 2025 to 2040, highlighting recruitment gaps as a key measure of supply and demand, with pressures varying by occupation and phase of the transition.

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